Republicans Could Score Big in the Senate… Hi Ho Silver!

This article is a response to the article by Nate Silver, editor-in-chief of ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and a response by the peice taken from realclearpolitics.com.

Nate Silver… 

Nerd is in vogue. It is ignorant to say that Mr. Silver’s brain is the only thing making him desirable. His thinning, mussy hair, soft lisp, round baby face, his academic slouch and thick 50s style glasses make him a hipsters daydream. To some… this is ethos enough to make his prediction golden even if they include a range of 11 going in either direction.

Add the fact that the man is a University of Chicago Econ grad (with honors nonetheless), an accomplished journalist, baseball genius, savvy business man and is now a media proclaimed oracle – it would appear that he has obliterated the colloquialism popularized by Mark Twain about Statistics: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

What did he say?

The GOP needs 6 seats to take the magic 51 seat majority.

So far Mr. Silver’s projections go something like this:

  1. The GOP wins West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana Senate seats
  2. Arkansas has a 70% chance of going to the GOP
  3. Louisiana has a 55%  of going to the GOP
  4. North Carolina has a 55 % of going to the GOP

Mr. Silver’s official projection is that the GOP wins 6 seats +/- 5. This means that of the seats up for grabs, the GOP has a chance to grab any number of them not exceeding eleven.

Nate Silver’s break down goes like this: a 60% chance the GOP will hold 51 Senate Seats at the end of the election; 40%  Democrats holds on to the majority in the Senate; and,  30% chance of the GOP winning all eleven.

So what?

Stats are great at projecting the likelihood of future events given several fixed factors at the present. The reality of the world is that everything is in flux and nothing is truly known until the moment is upon us.

This is where the unpredictability of conscious characters really means something. That’s just an attempt of sounding more intelligent than I really am and saying that your actions can make a difference. The reality is that people’s actions now influence the result of tomorrows outcomes. For example, our actions here at the Provo Victory Center are an attempt to help out the GOP in Alaska and Colorado. Alaska, according to Mr. Silver is given a 45% chance of going to the GOP. The concerted actions of volunteers in Alaska and in Provo could make up any number of percentage points in reality that aren’t known by stats.

The point is this: you can make a difference. Come to our National Day of Action on 5/17/2014 from 9AM to 9PM

Hit up this link for details.

https://www.facebook.com/events/647059302015711/

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